A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
